Preseason script vs. reality

March said Baltimore 102-60 and a World Series favorite. Kansas City 90-72 wild card. Dodgers 108-54. Atlanta 95-67 in the East. Toronto last at 72-90.

What actually happened:

• Kansas City is the team of the year. Projected 90 wins. They’re 87-42 with a +174 run differential and 17-2 in August. Witt, Olson, Marte, Johnson, Kirk — and a rotation that just keeps dealing (Rasmussen 1.95, Sheehan 14 wins). Preseason “unproven 4-5 starters” look like a punchline now.
• White Sox stole the East. Projected wild card. They’re 76-53, 12 up on Toronto, Crochet punching out the league (222 K), Caminero at 40 HR / 87 RBI, Muñoz closing games at a 32-save clip. Brad Russell is right behind Blue in Manager voting for a reason.
• Cubs pitching is historic. Projected 94-68 wild card. They’re 80-49 and have allowed 353 runs. Yamamoto, Peralta, Henderson, Melton, Brown — that’s a staff, not a 1-2 punch. Contact/speed showed up too (Hoerner 142 hits).
• Dodgers are good, not a superteam. Projected 108 wins. They’re 74-55, six back in the Midwest. Ohtani has 40 HR and 90 runs, Soto is still Soto — but the “historic offense + deep pen” forecast hasn’t run away with anything.
• Baltimore is excellent and still short of the forecast. 74-55, Skenes at 1.51/14-3. That’s a playoff club. It’s not 102-60.
• Toronto was the Memorial Day surprise and the summer fade. 31-22 in May, leading the East. Now 64-65, 3-7 in the last 10, 12 back. Imanaga and Cameron still have good numbers; the “misfit toys” just stopped winning the close ones (9-22 in one-run games).
• Atlanta and St. Louis never got off the mat. Preseason East favorite is 56-73. Cards are 50-79 with a -176 run differential. That’s the floor of the league.
• Detroit overachieved the 74-88 projection (64-65). Cleveland (44-85) and Tampa (45-84) lived down to the pessimism.

Stretch-run calls

Division winners

• West: Kansas City. Barring a collapse that would make league history, this is over.
• Midwest: Chicago (NL) is the safer pick, but LAD is only six back and can still make September noisy.
• Central: Boston by a nose. Philly is five back and dangerous if the rotation holds.
• East: Chicago (AL). Toronto would need a miracle and a White Sox face-plant.

Wild cards / playoff field Best remaining seats look like BAL, LAD, and PHN, with DET and TOR needing a heater. MON has Judge and still sits 26 out in the West — power without a race.

Awards

• MVP: Judge still leads the vote, but Olson on a 87-42 club is a real conversation. Buxton’s 47 bombs are the best “wrong-team” argument in years.
• Cy Young: Skenes unless Rasmussen or Yamamoto goes nuclear.
• Fireman: Muñoz vs. Chapman is a two-man race.

Bold one: The Cubs’ run prevention travels in October. If they get there, that 353 runs-allowed number is the scariest stat in the league — even scarier than Kansas City’s win total.

FCBL Team-by-Team Report — Through 129 Games August 22, 2026 | http://www.fcblonline.com/

Memorial Day we were talking about Toronto leading the East and Kansas City as a “nice surprise.” Thirty-three games remain. Here is every club: what the cards have given them, what has worked, and what has not.

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Kansas City Royals — 87-42 (.674) | West 1st | +174 RD

Preseason: 90-72 wild card. What’s gone right: Almost everything. Best record in the league, 17-2 in August, 41-16 in the division, 22-12 in one-run games. The heart of the order is exactly what Blue built — Witt, Olson (99 RBI), Marte, Johnson (.299), Kirk. Staff ERA 3.50 with Rasmussen (15-3, 1.95) and Sheehan (14 wins) carrying the rotation and Chapman at 32 saves. Manager of the Year race is not close. What’s gone wrong: Very little. Marte is on a short IL stint (3 games). The “unproven 4-5 starters” line from March is the only preseason miss, and it missed in KC’s favor.

Chicago (NL) Cubs — 80-49 (.620) | Midwest 1st | +198 RD

Preseason: 94-68 wild card. What’s gone right: Run prevention. 2.58 team ERA, 353 runs allowed, 21 shutouts, .186 opponent average. Yamamoto, Peralta, Henderson (2.29), Melton, Brown — that’s a playoff staff. Hoerner (142 hits, .293) and Peña set the table. 10-9 extra innings, 34-23 in the division. What’s gone wrong: The lineup is contact and gaps more than thump (62 homers at home parks in the split). Power from the corners/DH never fully arrived the way a 100-win club usually wants. They’re still the scariest October pitching staff in the league.

Chicago (AL) White Sox — 76-53 (.589) | East 1st | +41 RD

Preseason: 93-69 wild card. What’s gone right: They stole a division nobody reserved for them. 20-7 June, 13-6 August, 23-12 in one-run games, 45-26 on the road. Caminero (40 HR, 87 RBI) is the middle-of-the-order engine. Crochet leads the league with 222 K. Muñoz is 32-for-36 in saves and leading the Fireman vote. Turner’s speed (34 SB) fits the club. What’s gone wrong: Run differential is only +41 — they’re winning close more than they’re crushing people. Home record (31-27) is ordinary. If the one-run luck cools, the East lead can shrink fast.

Boston Red Sox — 75-54 (.581) | Central 1st | +107 RD

Preseason: 98-64 division winner. What’s gone right: Veteran floor showed up. 43-25 at home, +107 runs, Wheeler (207 K) and Perkins (13 wins) at the front. Laureano is hitting .304. Diaz still closing. They’ve been the Central’s most complete club for six months. What’s gone wrong: They’re a few wins short of the 98-win forecast and 4-10 in extras. Third base was the preseason question and it never fully settled. Philly is only five back. This is a grind-it-out division, not a coronation.

Baltimore Orioles — 74-55 (.574) | West 2nd, 13 GB | +79 RD

Preseason: 102-60 juggernaut, World Series pick. What’s gone right: Skenes is the best pitcher in the league (1.51 ERA, 14-3, 197 K). Sanchez (13 wins, 2.63) has been a real No. 2. Raleigh (38 HR) and the running game (178 SB) play. 45-26 at home. They’re a good team. What’s gone wrong: They’re not that team. Thirteen back of KC is a canyon. Outfield depth beyond the stars was the March warning and it showed. 5-12 in extras. Cy Young favorite on a wild-card-or-bust club is the story of the year in the West.

Los Angeles (NL) Dodgers — 74-55 (.574) | Midwest 2nd, 6 GB | +81 RD

Preseason: 108-54 superteam. What’s gone right: The stars are still stars. Ohtani 40 HR / 90 runs, Soto getting on base, 13-6 in extras, 40-27 on the road. Eovaldi (13-4) and Rogers (2.17 ERA) have given them a rotation spine. They’re very much alive six back of the Cubs. What’s gone wrong: Age/injury in the rotation was the preseason knock and it landed. Team ERA 3.89 is middle of the pack, not elite. The “unfair lineup” has 618 runs — good, not historic. Fielding X-PCT on the infield has been sloppy in spots (Muncy). This is a 93-win club pretending it was forecast for 108.

Philadelphia Phillies — 70-59 (.543) | Central 2nd, 5 GB | +86 RD

Preseason: 92-70 wild card. What’s gone right: Contact and defense up the middle. Wilson .300, Edwards 40 SB, Marsh .287. Rotation innings from Nelson, Suarez, Perez (2.33 ERA). 26-19 in one-run games. They’re built to hang around. What’s gone wrong: Relief was the March weakness and saves are only 33. August is 8-11. They lack a true 40-HR hammer in a league full of them. Five games back with 33 left is doable; it requires a cleaner bullpen.

Toronto Blue Jays — 64-65 (.496) | East 2nd, 12 GB | +34 RD

Preseason: 72-90, last in the East. Memorial Day: 31-22 and in first. What’s gone right: They beat the forecast. Cameron (2.70) and a decent staff ERA (3.62). Aranda, Marsee (36 doubles), Perdomo still produce. 14 shutouts. For two months they were the story of the league. What’s gone wrong: The fade. 11-16 June, 10-14 July, 8-11 August, 3-7 last ten, 9-22 in one-run games. That’s the season in one line. Valdez and Bassitt have 12 losses each. The “misfit toys” stopped winning the 3-2 games. Twelve back is a long walk.

Detroit Tigers — 64-65 (.496) | West 3rd, 23 GB | -13 RD

Preseason: 74-88. What’s gone right: They beat the projection by a lot. Chourio (133 hits), Barger’s bat, Uribe 20 saves, 40-30 at home, 6-4 last ten. 90-17 stolen base rate is elite. Callahan’s club is respectable. What’s gone wrong: No stopper in the rotation, exactly as forecast. -13 run differential. They win at Comerica and survive on the road (24-35). A .500 team in a division with a 87-win runaway.

Montreal Expos — 61-68 (.473) | West 4th, 26 GB | -54 RD

Preseason: 88-74, “bash brothers.” What’s gone right: Judge is an MVP candidate (46 HR, 103 RBI, 1.002 OPS) even on a fourth-place club. Happ draws walks. Greene still misses bats (180 K). 6-4 last ten. What’s gone wrong: The supporting lineup never became a supporting cast. Harper and Alvarez have not carried a second wave. Team OPS .688. Rotation is top-heavy. You don’t win 88 when one man is the offense. Preseason power forecast showed up in one jersey.

Atlanta Braves — 56-73 (.434) | East 3rd, 20 GB | -90 RD

Preseason: 95-67 East winner. What’s gone right: Pasquantino still drives in runs (81 RBI, 28 HR). Machado has 19 bombs. Rodon (8-4, 3.29) has been the rotation adult. 6-4 last ten, 35-35 on the road. What’s gone wrong: Home (21-38) is a problem. 17-31 in one-run games. Team ERA 4.44, Ryan 4-11. Catching/defense (Narvaez 16 errors) and a 4.02 runs/game offense. The Commish rebuild is still a rebuild. March’s “trending in the right direction” has not arrived in 2026.

Cincinnati Reds — 56-73 (.434) | Central 3rd, 19 GB | -124 RD

Preseason: 84-78. What’s gone right: Montgomery (36 HR) and young upside flashes. 35-32 at home. They can beat you on a given night (9-7 vs TBA in the series ledger). What’s gone wrong: 2-8 last ten, 6-13 August, 21-41 on the road. Staff ERA 4.61, Kinley has been a blow-up artist (105 R). Lineup OPS .682. Growing pains were the forecast; the second-half slide is worse than that.

Texas Rangers — 56-73 (.434) | Midwest 3rd, 24 GB | -88 RD

Preseason: 85-77, “best rotation in the league.” What’s gone right: Buxton is a monster (47 HR, .654 SLG). Devers walks. Sale still punches out 203. Individual stars exist. What’s gone wrong: The rotation thesis died. Team ERA 4.58, 223 HR allowed (worst in the league), Burnes 13 losses, Bieber getting hit. 7-17 July, 6-13 August. You cannot hang 548 runs on a staff that gives 636 back.

St. Louis Cardinals — 50-79 (.388) | East 4th, 26 GB | -176 RD

Preseason: 81-81, “not this year.” What’s gone right: Adell (38 HR, 77 RBI) and Herrera flashes. 8-6 in extras. Youth is on the roster. What’s gone wrong: Everything else. Worst run differential in the league. 4.74 ERA, 671 runs allowed, 105 errors, 188 stolen bases against. Catching/defense is a nightly adventure. Cramer’s direction is still the future. 2026 is the tuition.

Cleveland Indians — 44-85 (.341) | Midwest 4th, 36 GB | -94 RD

Preseason: 82-80. What’s gone right: Skubal still gives them a chance every fifth day (202 K). Kwan plays. Best fielding percentage in the league (.992). Hayes is a Gold Glove candidate. 6-4 last ten is a small pulse. What’s gone wrong: No secondary power (team SLG .351, 431 runs). 8-19 June, 7-17 July, 11-30 in one-run games, 20-48 on the road. One ace and a lot of air. The “high-OBP stability” forecast never scored enough to matter.

Tampa Bay Rays — 45-84 (.349) | Central 4th, 30 GB | -161 RD

Preseason: 78-84. What’s gone right: Suárez (41 HR, 89 RBI) and Ozuna’s walks (90). Speed still exists (Simpson 35 SB). Snell’s ERA (2.67) is a bright line on a bad staff. What’s gone wrong: 1-9 last ten, 10-35 interleague, 4.84 ERA, .269 opponent average. Strikeout-prone lineup plus a bullpen that cannot finish. Chaos without the wins. This is a last-place club that plays like one.

Awards watch: Judge vs. Olson for MVP. Skenes for Cy Young. Muñoz vs. Chapman for Fireman. Blue for Manager.